Citizens for sane government issued the following announcement on Oct. 8.
Fewer competitive special elections and an aversion to super PACs in the Democratic presidential primary are tamping down outside spending so far in the 2020 campaign cycle.The $27.5 million in outside spending through Oct. 7 is less than half of what it was at this point in the 2018 cycle ($63.9 million) and substantially lower than 2016 ($49.1 million).But with more than a year to go until November 2020, there’s still plenty of time for independent spenders –– typically super PACs that aren’t supposed to coordinate with candidates –– to catch up.In OpenSecrets data going back to 1989, every full election cycle has seen at least 25 percent more outside spending than the one four years prior. So what’s behind this cycle’s decline thus far?The big drop-off from 2018 can be summarized in two words: special elections. The 2018 cycle featured the most expensive House race of all-time in Georgia’s 6th District, in which outside groups dropped nearly $27.3 million on what was seen as an early referendum on President Donald Trump’s popularity. While 2019 featured the second-most expensive House special election ever in North Carolina’s 9th District, the $12.4 million spent on that race simply can’t compare to GA-06. In addition, by this point in 2017 the spending in the Alabama Senate special election was in full gear, with $11.7 million already spent out of an eventual total of $20.5 million. This cycle doesn’t have a special Senate election to match.
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What about the drop-off from 2016? That cycle featured competitive presidential primaries in both parties, with the Republican primary in particular shaping up to be a record-setter (remember Jeb Bush’s $100 million super PAC?). Through Oct. 7, 2015, the presidential primaries had already attracted $38.5 million in outside spending, $36.3 million of that on the Republican side. Seven single-candidate outside groups — each backing a different Republican presidential hopeful — had spent more than $1 million each.In contrast, most Democratic contenders have either sworn off super PAC assistance entirely or failed to attract the wealthy donors who could support one. So far, the only single-candidate group to spend more than $1 million on the Democratic primary is the super PAC Act Now On Climate, which spent $1.8 million in support of Washington Gov. Jay Inslee before he dropped out. One other single-candidate group, the pro-Cory Booker Dream United, has raised over $1 million, but has made less than $10,000 in independent expenditures so far.On top of that, the single-biggest donor to outside groups in 2016, Tom Steyer, has shifted his money into his own presidential bid. As a result, the presidential race has been the target of only $8.4 million in outside spending so far — less than a quarter of the total at the same point in 2016. The majority of that has come from two groups supporting Trump, the Committee to Defend the President and Great America PAC, the two biggest non-party outside spenders of this cycle.Some super PACs appear to be saving cash to spend in the general election that’s still more than a year away. For example, last cycle’s second-biggest outside spender, Senate Majority PAC, had already raised nearly $13.6 million through June 2019, more than any other super PAC, but has made barely more than $200,000 in independent expenditures this cycle. Three conservative super PACs — Senate Leadership Fund, Americans for Prosperity Action, and America First Action — each had at least $10 million on hand as of their mid-year FEC reports.But while those fundraising numbers indicate that there’s plenty of outside spending to come, it will take much more than that if 2020 is to approach the pace set by previous cycles. Most likely, some of the liberal megadonors currently taking a wait-and-see approach to the presidential primary will need to open up their wallets in a hurry once the nomination is decided.
Original source here.
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